Beachgoers fish in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday on Fort Myers Beach. Southwest Florida’s wet season begins today, and the region has already had a few afternoons of rain.(Photo: Kinfay Moroti/news-press.com)



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South Florida's water system is better prepared for summer rains than it was a year ago, when one of the wettest tropical seasons in recent decades flooded communities, fed algae blooms and forced health officials to post health warnings at public beaches.


The rainy season officially begins today and goes through Nov. 1. The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center is calling for above-average rain for June and an equal chance of above, below or normal rainfall during July and August. Southwest Floridians have experienced gloomy weather, towering clouds and afternoon thunderstorms recently.


"It's about that time of year. We start to warm up during the day, moisture increases and the tropical pressure shifts to the north," said Rodney Wynn, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Ruskin. "And that gives us sea breeze thunderstorms, which is what we've been seeing the past couple of days."


Southwest Florida was the wettest region in the state during last year's immense rains, but the region dried out quickly over the dry season as a scant 12 inches of rain has fallen on Lee and coastal Collier counties since Nov. 2. That's more than 4 inches below average for the dry season, according to the South Florida Water Management District. With more storage in the South Florida Water Management District — a 16-county region — the region is more equipped to handle heavy rain going forward.


"We had an early start to the wet season last year and we got a really wet start," said John Campbell with the Army Corps of Engineers in Jacksonville. "April through July was the wettest April through July since 1932. So we had a whole bunch of historical factors that kept the lake from getting down to where we'd like to see it."



Tyler Leiby, 13, left, and Leo Zimmerman, 10, play volleyball in the Gulf on Thursday on Fort Myers Beach. This time of year, most of the beachgoing is done early since storms usually pounce in the afternoon.(Photo: Kinfay Moroti/news-press.com)



This year is different


The drier season and more lake storage mean South Florida will be better able to handle an average or even slightly-above-average precipitation between now and mid-October, when rains typically start to subside.


"Last year at this time we bottomed out at 13.29 (feet above sea level on Lake Okeechobee) and so we have almost three-quarters of a foot more," Campbell said. "That doesn't sound like a lot, but the lake is very large, and it translates into a lot more storage. We have significantly more storage this year."


Army Corps guidelines say the lake should be kept between 12.5 and 15.5 feet above sea level to protect lives and property on the south side of the lake. Lake Okeechobee was connected to the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie rivers to drain the Everglades and provide dry land for farming and development and today is managed by the Army Corps with input from the Water Management District.


Last summer produced 45 inches of rainfall on average across Lee and coastal Collier counties, according to the district. That's more than five inches above normal for that period.


The lake connection means water that falls as far away as the Orlando area can end up on the bayside of Sanibel Island or even 15 miles into the Gulf of Mexico — as was the case last summer. The unnatural conditions have crippled the Caloosahatchee estuary — killing sea grasses and oyster beds at times.


Water coming into the lake last summer was higher than the Army Corps could pump it to the east and west coasts. This year, Campbell said, South Florida and the lake dried out. Lake levels topped 16 feet above sea level last year.


"We always have to leave ourselves a bit of cushion," Campbell said. "As we were doing maximum releases last summer, water levels were still building, and it wasn't until the dry season started that we saw some draw-down. At this point it appears, however you want to define adequate, there is storage available."


Lake levels were just below 12.5 feet last week, nearly a foot lower than they were in June 2013. Campbell said small storms and even unnamed systems can drastically change the landscape. Tropical Storm Isaac, for example, took the region from drought-like conditions to near flooding.



Pick up a copy of the 2014 Hurricane Guide in Sunday's edition of The News-Press(Photo: news-press.com)



El Nino impacts


Warmer Pacific Ocean surface temperatures can trigger a weather phenomenon known as El Nino, which produces conditions that make it difficult for Atlantic tropical systems to form or intensify.


Meteorologists predict El Nino will muffle tropical storm development in the latter half of the season, and most agencies are calling for fewer than average numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes this season.


The National Hurricane Center is calling for eight to 13 named storms and three to six hurricanes, with one or two of those becoming a category 3 or higher.


Fewer tropical systems could mean less rain for the season ahead, but hurricane forecasts don't necessarily translate into less rain.


"It just depends on where the high pressure sets up and where the sea breeze boundaries collide," Wynn said when asked what the public should expect between now and October. "There's really no way to forecast it out through the next four months."


Connect with this reporter: @ChadGillisNP on twitter.


By the numbers


39.76


Inches of average rainfall in Lee and coastal Collier from June 1 to Nov. 1, 2013


500 to 599


Rating for the region on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, which range from 0 to 750


10.75


Inches of rainfall in Southwest Florida during July 2013


12.49


Lake Okeechobee levels last week in feet above sea level


450,000


Acre-feet of storage need to clean up Caloosahatchee River and its estuary


Sources: South Florida Water Management District, Florida Forest Service


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