Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed late Wednesday evening near Puerto Rico. Gabrielle weakened Thursday midday. Another tropical system may form over the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico.
The next name on the list of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin is Humberto.
Northeastern Caribbean
The center of Gabrielle is located west-southwest of Ponce, Puerto Rico, with slow movement to the northwest. The low level center of the depression was shifted to the southwest of the circulation at mid-levels of the atmosphere as a result of disruptive winds.
At 11:00 a.m., Gabrielle was downgraded to a tropical depression and is not likely to become a hurricane for at least the next few days and could dissipate.
Regardless of classification Gabrielle will continue to bring locally heavy rainfall from the Virgin Islands to Puerto Rico through the end of the week. Some pockets of heavy rain may develop over part of Hispaniola as well.
Total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are likely, but the rugged terrain will enhance the rainfall and the threat of flash flooding and mudslides.
As of noon EDT, Thursday, during the past 72 hours, San Juan, P.R. had received 1.48 inches of rain. During the same period in the U.S. Virgin Islands, St. Thomas picked up 2.58 inches with 2.90 inches falling on St. Croix.
The area from the Windward and Leeward islands to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands has been subject to locally heavy showers and gusty thunderstorms since the start of the week.
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Gabrielle is forecast to drift along a curved path to the northwest, north and northeast through the weekend. Some showers and thunderstorms from the system or its remnants could begin to affect the Turks and Caicos and the southern part of the Bahamas this weekend.
"The mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola is likely to interfere with the circulation of the system and is likely to hinder redevelopment through Saturday," said Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
Depending on the strength of the system, there is the potential for sudden rough seas in the region, associated with squalls. These can be a hazard for small craft.
Indications are that during next week, disruptive westerly winds in the atmosphere may continue to limit development of the system.
These same winds could keep the center of the system from reaching the United States mainland.
While there are some factors that will limit the intensity of this system, people should continue to monitor its progress as occasionally tropical systems can pulse.
Southwestern Gulf of Mexico
Another system has made its way from the Caribbean, across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
"As this system drifts over the warm waters of the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico late this week, it will have a chance to become better organized," Kottlowski stated.
The system will produce drenching showers and locally gusty thunderstorms along the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico the next couple of days.
This system will then drift into the Mexico mainland this weekend and may not have enough time to get very strong before doing so. However, even a disturbance, depression or storm would still bring the potential for torrential rain, flooding and mudslides. Veracruz, Mexico, was hit hard by Tropical Storm Fernand in late August.
Hurricane hunter aircraft was investigating this system Thursday afternoon.
Monitoring Other Systems
There are several other systems being watched over the next few days in the Atlantic Basin. One is just to the northeast of Gabrielle. Another is over the central Atlantic. A third is a disturbance currently drifting westward across Africa.
Source: southwest - Google News http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&fd=R&usg=AFQjCNEV2fMhaWomKpcLa-xfsLlJ2pyAAw&url=http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/caribbean-tropical-development-possible/17415659
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